win on saturday, and sounders guaranteed a 3rd seed
i agree with the comments from giffy on my post from last night… “Its the LAG game that has me scared. I think a draw between Chivas and Houston is pretty doable, but San Jose is a pretty [not good] team”
while my numbers below are purely based on “what could happen” it takes nothing into account of who is playing, where they are playing and how the teams match up. a houston chivas draw is not hard to imagine… but i would give SJ not much chance of a win in LA, and not a much greater chance at a draw… but, still, could happen.
one thing is for certain, if we take care of our business at home, we secure, at minimum, a 3rd place spot, and that keeps open the doors to hosting the second round. given the parity between these two teams, anyone can beat anyone, and having home field advantage could be the difference maker. yeah yeah, i know we haven’t scored at home for a while now, but i really see that as dumb luck, we have played well and have created chances. clearly we wouldn’t prefer to play on the road. maybe home-field isn’t as big an advantage to us as it is to other teams, but surely it is better than giving LA, HOU or Chiv their home crowd. anywho…
here are the numbers
| seed | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| if sounders | win | 22% | 56% | 22% | 0% |
| draw | 0% | 11% | 33% | 56% | |
| lose | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
based upon the following scenarios
| match results | final points | final standings | |||||||||
| Sea v Dal | LAD v SJ | Hou v Chiv | Chiv v Chi | SEA | LAG | Hou | Chi | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| sea | la | hou | chi | 47 | 48 | 48 | 45 | sea | |||
| sea | la | draw | chi | 47 | 48 | 46 | 46 | sea | |||
| sea | la | chiv | chi | 47 | 48 | 45 | 48 | sea | |||
| sea | draw | hou | chi | 47 | 46 | 48 | 45 | sea | |||
| sea | draw | draw | chi | 47 | 46 | 46 | 46 | sea | |||
| sea | draw | chiv | chi | 47 | 46 | 45 | 48 | sea | |||
| sea | SJ | hou | chi | 47 | 45 | 48 | 45 | sea | |||
| sea | SJ | draw | chi | 47 | 45 | 46 | 46 | sea | |||
| sea | SJ | chiv | chi | 47 | 45 | 45 | 48 | sea | |||
| draw | la | hou | chi | 45 | 48 | 48 | 45 | sea | |||
| draw | la | draw | chi | 45 | 48 | 46 | 46 | sea | |||
| draw | la | chiv | chi | 45 | 48 | 45 | 48 | sea | |||
| draw | draw | hou | chi | 45 | 46 | 48 | 45 | sea | |||
| draw | draw | draw | chi | 45 | 46 | 46 | 46 | sea | |||
| draw | draw | chiv | chi | 45 | 46 | 45 | 48 | sea | |||
| draw | SJ | hou | chi | 45 | 45 | 48 | 45 | sea | |||
| draw | SJ | draw | chi | 45 | 45 | 46 | 46 | sea | |||
| draw | SJ | chiv | chi | 45 | 45 | 45 | 48 | sea | |||
yamsmos Reply:
October 23rd, 2009 at 8:47 am
thanks acc, yeah, you are right and i corrected. it changed one scenario (second from bottom) moving us from 4th place to 3rd.